By Kurt Metzger
Editor’s note: The Center continues a series of comments from Kurt Metzger of Data Driven Detroit on what the 2010 census results mean for Michigan today, and tomorrow. Metzger worked for the U.S. Census Bureau for 15 years and has been studying demographic data and issues in Michigan for three decades.
A recent report from the Brookings Institution, The Uneven Aging and ‘Younging’ of America, tells us that “baby boomers have crossed the generation gap and are now, along with older Americans, the majority of the nation’s voting age population.”
An analysis of the nation’s states and metropolitan areas finds that areas experiencing the fastest growth in the senior population are located in the Sun Belt, while areas with the highest concentrations of seniors are located primarily in Florida, the Northeast and the Midwest.
The report states “America is beginning to show its age as the baby boom ‘pig in the python’ advances toward full-fledged senior-hood. Decisions about scarce, age-related resources, such as schools and child care or age-care and senior services, must be made considering changing demographic realities.”
An earlier report provided a brief summary of what the early 2010 Census results are revealing in the area of race/ethnic, age and household structure. Michigan’s trajectory over the last several decades has not been one that signals a need for increasing numbers of child-care facilities or school buildings – just higher quality and performance for all. Rather, we have seen a rapidly aging population that must be served.
We will leave the issue of retaining and attracting a younger, more educated work force for a later “musing” and delve a little more deeply now into Michigan’s aging population and what it means for our future.
Figure 1: Percent change by age group in Michigan, 2000-2010
Michigan’s median age increased from 35.5 years to 38.9 years over the decade. Figure 1 at right provides the detailed population change that has
driven this increase.
Figure 2 shows Michigan’s population by age group by gender. This depiction allows one to see that higher numbers of male births (the typical trend) results in their having higher representation in the younger age cohorts. This advantage tends to end in the mid-twenties and is followed by increasing female representation due to higher death rates for males and longer life expectancies for females.
The only age categories below 45 years of age to grow were the ’15 to 19 years’ and ‘20 to 24 years’ cohorts. Combined, they accounted for an increase of 45,000 residents. Rather than a sign of increasing in-migration,
Figure 2: 2010 age pyramid for Michigan
this growth was the result of a demographic “baby boomlet bubble” that occurred as a result of baby boomers having children in the late 1980s and early 1990s. As seen in Figure 3, 1990 was a high point for births in Michigan (and most of the state’s counties), with 2009’s total representing a 23.4 percent decrease. The 2009 birth rate of 11.8 births per 1,000 population was down from 16.4 in 1990, and less than half the rate (25.0) of the 1946-1964 baby boom period.
The three age cohorts below 15 years of age experienced a loss of 254,912 persons and, unless in-migration and birth rates increase rather dramatically over the next several years, will result in losses in the next three cohorts above them come 2020.
Michigan’s growth occurred in the population 45 years and above. If we use that as our cut point, we find that Michigan gained 673,564 persons 45 years of age and above (up 19.5 percent) and lost 728,368 persons less than 45 years of age (down 11.2 percent). The population 55 years and above grew by 25.5 percent and the population 65 years and above grew by 11.7
Figure 3: Total births in Michigan, 1950-2009
percent. Since baby boomers just started reaching the 65-year mark this year, it is the huge cohort between 55 and 64 years of age that looks to be the current future of Michigan.
This is not a sustainable trend in the long run and our leaders recognize this quite clearly.
We must do everything we can to invest in our urban areas so that they become the “magnets” that can hold on to the young people coming out of our universities and lure back many who have left in recent years. We must make every effort to be recognized as an immigrant-friendly state that recognizes the critical role immigrants play in business development and neighborhood revitalization. We must strengthen the quality of life – schools, public safety, recreation, public transportation, walkability, etc. – in all areas of our state so as to attract and retain young families.
While all this is critical for our future, we must recognize the now and make sure that our communities provide a strong quality of life for our aging population. While I recognize the need for attracting and retaining the young, I must admit that I have been one of those “over 45ers’ for a number of years now. I love Michigan and I love Detroit. I want to be able to keep my residence here, though I hope I can afford to spend a little more time in a warmer climate during the winter. The aging population of Michigan wants all the quality of life amenities that the young are seeking – with a few exceptions that I don’t need to list.
However, there are a number of things that are critical for communities to address that will go a long way to support this important and active sector of our community. I give you the following list and invite suggestions for more:
* Housing and land use
* Amend zoning ordinances to allow for range of single-family housing alternatives for older adults (home sharing; accessory dwelling units)
* Support home repair programs address maintenance needs of older adults
* Support financial programs that enable older adults to remain in their homes and communities
* Mobility and transportation network
* Sidewalks and walkways
* Curb ramps
* Marked crosswalks and enhancements
* Street furniture and walking environment
* Pedestrian overpasses and underpasses
* Roadway lighting improvements
* Encourage alternative transportation options
* Wellness, engagement and interaction
* Provide range of recreation options
* Create spaces where older adults can pursue hobbies – gardening, photography, cooking, etc.
* Plan older housing next to housing for younger generations
* Promote opportunities for volunteerism
* Promote work opportunities
* Encourage programs such as life life-long learning with local colleges or universities
A truly healthy state is one that is attractive to all – regardless of age, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender identity, class, religion, country of origin, physical ability or other personal characteristics. Let us all work toward making Michigan such a state.
Allow me to finish with two quotes:
“The key to successful aging is to pay as little attention to it as possible” — Judith Regan.
“Youth is the gift of nature, but age is a work of art” — Garson Kanin.
6 Comments
I have just been writing about the Winter Cities Institute, founded by Houghton/Anchorage planner Pat Coleman after the wonderful Winter Cities of the World conferences got to be too much. It’s all about planning recreation, transportation, and more to EMBRACE WINTER. Check out the site. Interesting ideas about how cold weather can be cool. Advisors, mostly Canadian, include Houghton, Michigan, city manager Scott MacInnes—come to think of it, son of Michigan Tech’s legendary hockey coach. Most Tech grads would love to live in the Keweenaw — if only there were more jobs. Some do make them. Houghton and Marquette certainly get their share of retirees—Marquette especially
You forgot the most important senior past time – libraries to read, attend programs, audio books, e-books, use computers, check out movies and much more!
More sidewalks – yes. But sidewalks to nowhere wont help. Thus walkable means most places and services are a walkable distance. That will require big changes – sprawl repair and suburban retofitting.
If you want an active community for older residents, provide adequate public transportation. It will save money and lives. Older American are responsible for almost as many automobile deaths as teenagers. Let’s provide a safer and cheaper way for our aging population to travel. The cost of cars, insurance and gas will only go up.
Nice article. See the elderly would like and benefit from a lot of these suggestions. Seems ironic then that soo many of them screamed bloody murder when the issue of pension taxes came up earlier this year. If you are not willing to pitch in and pay for these things, then don’t expect them to happen.
It’s easy to point fingers at the senior citizens who did not want to have their pension taxed but this misses the point. Many did not mind paying a higher portion but, to tax the pensions so that we could still have a neutral revenue stream in Lansing so that a business tax cut could occur was what many found objectionable. The same is true for the near loss of the earned income tax credit that helped poor people. Their tax increase did not suit them either though many of them are so impoverished that we lend no credence to their voice anyways.