By Kurt Metzger
The stories of out-migration: From Michigan, from metro Detroit, and from the City of Detroit – have dominated the headlines since the early part of the last decade.
United Van Lines reported that their Michigan activity was dominated by outbound trips – 68 percent of all Michigan-related moves. This was the highest outbound share among the states and marked the 4th straight year that Michigan has had this dubious honor.
The Census Bureau estimates that Michigan lost 278,000 persons to domestic out-migration between 2006 and 2009. A Data Driven Detroit (D3) analysis of migration data from the IRS revealed that every state in the country gained Michigan residents between 2007 and 2008 (latest data available). Florida (4,806), Texas (3,522), Arizona (2,933) and California (2,782) were the big winners.
The six-county Detroit metropolitan area has also experienced an increasing level of domestic out-migration over the decade, with each of its counties contributing to that loss. In the most recent year available, 2007-08, the area lost over 62,000 residents to outmigration. Wayne County far outdistanced the others, losing 45,140, while Oakland (-9,428), Macomb (-3,302), St. Clair (-1,707), Lapeer (-1,330) and Livingston (-1,253) also joined in.
While D3 has raised questions as to the current population of Detroit, there is no question that the population has decreased since 2000 as residents have moved to nearby suburbs or left the area entirely. We must wait for the 2010 Census to inform us in 2011 when the data are released.
While we may not know the numbers, the degree of loss can be understood to some degree by U-Haul rental rates. The data are clear: It costs more to rent a truck in Detroit and go just about anywhere, than it does to travel in the opposite direction. I did some research and found the following rates for a 17” truck on a one-way trip starting on February 15, 2010.
1. Detroit to Charlotte, NC $1,048 Charlotte to Detroit $341
2. Detroit to Austin, TX $1,786 Austin to Detroit $835
3. Detroit to Los Angeles, CA $2,351 Los Angeles to Detroit $1,942
4. Detroit to Chicago, IL $363 Chicago to Detroit $313
5. Detroit to Orlando, FL $1,445 Orlando to Detroit $714
6. Detroit to Philadelphia, PA $850 Philadelphia to Detroit $531
While the differentials may vary, the trip from Detroit is consistently higher. One would think that this would encourage people across the country to come to Detroit via U-Haul just for the cost savings and the low cost housing!
Understand this it is not a “Detroit thing,” because a rental from Troy, or even Ann Arbor, comes up essentially the same. It is not a “winter thing” either, because scheduling a move for the summer will show no difference.
The only explanation I can come up with is one of supply and demand. The high levels of out movers has driven up the demand for U-Haul trucks locally and reduced the supply. The numbers of in-movers are not enough to replenish the supply and the rates respond accordingly.
The moral of the story……
We will know that Michigan and Detroit are on their way back when the U-Haul rate differentials start to shrink. If it ever costs you more to go from Austin or Charlotte to Detroit, than the reverse, we will know that SUCCESS IS OURS!
Editor’s Note: Kurt Metzger, one of Michigan’s best-known and most experienced demographers, is director of Data Driven Detroit (D3). Read his blog at detroitdataguru.wordpress.com.
