Virg Bernero and Rick Snyder won yesterday’s Democratic and Republican primaries even more convincingly than the statewide vote totals suggest, according to a Center for Michigan analysis of the county-by-county results.
In the Democratic Primary, Bernero carried 72 of 83 Michigan counties — all but 11 thinly populated ones.
On the Republican side, Snyder carried 61 counties. Mike Cox took 12 (including seven in the Upper Peninsula), and Pete Hoekstra took 10 (all in west Michigan).
There will surely be carping from some Cox supporters claiming Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard cost the attorney general the governorship. Actually, it doesn’t look that way. Even if every Bouchard voter went for Cox instead, Cox still loses to Snyder by 14,000 votes.
In the end, Snyder won because the conservative wing of the Republican Party divided and conquered itself.
Had conservative voters pooled their votes behind one candidate rather than three (Bouchard, Cox, and Hoekstra), they would have out-polled Snyder by 266,000 votes.
Now, take that bar-napkin logic one step further… Let’s say Andy Dillon wasn’t in the race and all of his votes magically transferred to Snyder. The Ann Arbor venture capitalist would have lost to a single conservative — by about 50,000 votes.
6 Comments
I voted for Rick Synder in the primary. As a person who is nominally a Democrat and resides in Oakland County I felt it was very important that a moderate Republican be nominated, I made that decision when the other candidates – Mike Cox, Pete Heokstra, and Mike Bouchard aligned themselves with special interests; Tea Party, Right to Life, etc, rather than trying to speak to the issues. I felt a moderate candidate who was going to focus on the economy was key.
I may or may not vote for Rick Synder in the general election it will really depend on what his focus is and how he proposes to solve the pressing economic issues and balance that with the needs of the broad constituency of the state. He will have to understand that a state is not a business but looks like one.
Virg Bonero, so far, is a classic “us against them” candidate. I don’t understand exactly who is the us’es and who is the them’s. My vote is yet to be cast but I look forward to an interesting campaign.
Interesting to note that Snyder also won the home counties of Bouchard, Cox and George. Hoekstra was the only other candidate to take his home county.
Where IS the beef?? Do we really believe a Governor can make significant progression without first motvating the Legistators to come up with some compromises? And, isn’t most of the beef hidden in plain view within the Legistators rank and file? Afterall, how can we expect a Governor to solve much of anything if the majority and minority leaders will not negoiate some outcomes, instead of just stonewalling. As for me, I want to hear HOW they will do there magic, not just hear what they will do!
I completely agree with Mike. The other Republican candidates pandered to the usual list of conservative special interests including the new Tea Party crowd. The real race was between Dillon and Snyder, both of whom courted the entire electorate instead of the narrow ideological activists of their parties. However, only one candidate could win the centrist vote (moderate Dems, moderate Republicans, and Independents). Most Democrats like Mike knew that the next governor will be a Republican, so instead of voting for their favorite Democrat they voted for their least hated Republican.
For Snyder to win in November he must enact the same strategy and not be labeled a Wall Street Republican. He must be a centrist independent Republican who focuses on the issues not on political attacks or ideological pandering.
But what Mike’s story tells us is that while independents and moderate Dems may have voted for Mr. Snyder this time, he should not necessarily count on their vote in November. Mike and voters like him voted for Snyder because they disliked the other Republican candidates that much. However, come November their votes may revert back to the Democratic candidate. Mr. Snyder better be cautious or else he may be scratching his head and wondering what happened on November 3rd.
PS: I’ve heard many stories like Mike’s. I would be interested in research that studies the political sophistication of centrists versus party/ideological activists. It seems that centrists may be more politically sophisticated. Stories like this in which centrists strategize their votes seem to confirm this belief. But that could also be wishful thinking.
I think I see common threads between Snyder and Bernero, they both see our problems clearly and their solutions may intersect. Having said that, I fantacize about a coalition between the two candidates. In my dream only the good of our state is on the table, not special interests, and all creative efforts are called upon to move us forward. I participated in a Center for Michigan forum and embrace the Citizen’s Agenda.
So, how about it, Virg and Rick, why not pool your talents, resources and shared desire to put our beautiful state on top once again? Let’s get Michigan going and expand our economy so our son find a job comparabe to the one he has in Georgia and be able to move back to the state of his birth. How many parents have seen their children move “away” just to get jobs? Just think of all that education and experience from which we can benefit.
What do you think?
Nancy
Good to find some like minded voters.
As an aside – George, you make a good point. If I could I would add one thing. It will be up to us, the voters to add the “beef”. If either candidate can set an agenda that makes economic sense and will move the state forward then it is up to us to push both the State House and Senate to move that agenda forward. To often we as voters have allowed ourselves to be seduced by campaign slogans appealing to narrow interests and not the general well being of the populace.
In my long career in business I have come to realize that few organizations can manage too many initiatives; a handful of widely supported strong actions is what is needed.
Just my $0.02 worth