I think this election will mark an important turning point in our political history. Here's why.

Liberalism dominated our politics between 1932 and the early 1970's. Nationally, it was the era of Social Security, Medicare, the Civil Rights movement. In Michigan, it was the age of our great auto companies and the United Automobile Workers union, which started out as management's adversary and ended up its handmaiden.

Then, from 1980 to 2006, conservatism dominated. Nationally, the great achievements were: Winning the Cold War; reinvigorating the economy through tax cuts and deregulation, and resetting the cultural agenda to emphasize families and individual responsibility. In Michigan, it was the era of John Engler, tax cuts and welfare reform.

In between were the 1970's, a transitional period, marked by no dominating political philosophy. Political allegiances moved every which way, with liberals drifting away and conservatives feeling gathering strength, which was temporarily sidetracked by Watergate.

Voters were confused, cynical about our political system itself, searching for a new way but uncertain about what it might be.

The period we are now entering feels a lot like that. Conservatives have run out of ideas, with little new or interesting to propose, and they've lost their intellectual muscle. With one party running Washington, we're now seeing the scandals that always mark the decay of a movement. The 19th century English statesman, Lord Acton, had it right when he famously wrote: "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely."

Nationally, the Bush Administration's combination of an ill-judged and astoundingly ill-managed war in Iraq with a leadership culture of secretive arrogance has antagonized people who otherwise might have put up with ballooning national deficits and radical tax cuts for the very rich. Karl Rove's core political strategy of subordinating policy to the politics of riling up the rabid base has backfired at last by driving away the less ideological majority.

In Michigan, the intellectual emptiness of this year's campaign - sex offenders, Canadian trash and U.S. Sen. John Kerry are the big problems, according to the political ads on TV - highlights the sad contrast between what's important and what's mere theater.

The fundamental fact is that we are living through a wrenching transition from an unsustainable business model for the auto industry.  And as this happens, our political masters have been busy themselves not solving the problems but in re-arranging the deck chairs of the Titanic ... all the while passionately blaming each other for the iceberg.

When they're not attacking Dick DeVos' wealth, Democrats seem paralyzed at the thought of actually encouraging the transformation of Michigan's economic and social base.

Relax the grip the UAW has on the auto industry? Heavens, no! Attack out of control fringe benefits and pensions for public sector employees and their unions? Certainly not!

Think seriously about charter schools as a remedy for Detroit's imploding public school system? Not on your life!

Too much of Michigan's prevailing cultural makeup tolerates attitudes of dependency, entitlement, risk aversion and disinterest in lifelong learning. Yet too many Democrats figure the old ways and the old attitudes worked OK for a long time, and all we need to fix things is a new President and repeal of free trade laws.

As to the Republicans, their steady rightward drift has turned off a lot of moderate people who otherwise might vote GOP. An early tip off: The defeat in the August primary of moderate Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz of Battle Creek by the noisy and ineffectual right-winger Tim Walberg. Dick DeVos' rigid views on abortion, stem cell research, intelligent design and cutting taxes without much attention to the consequences didn't help.

Sen. Shirley Johnson (R-Royal Oak), one of the most experienced and sensible Republican office holders, was quoted recently by political reporter Peter Luke: "I think everyone is getting sick over how far right the Republican Party is headed."

The national Gallup Poll provides evidence of how right she is. Since the first quarter of 2005, voters identifying with the Republican Party have fallen from 35.3 per cent to 31.1 percent, while those identifying as Democrats have risen from 32.8 per cent to 35 percent. Independents have risen from 30.6 per cent to 32.5 per cent.

What this further indicates is that neither political party is particularly coherent or compelling to the majority of folks who are, after all, usually in the middle of the road. These are people who distrust both intense partisanship and the fierce glare of the ideologues. What they want is good places to raise their children, good schools to ready them for global competition and a government that competently delivers services at reasonable cost.

Such people are casting about for a new way of politics.

They find unconventional candidates like Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama appealing, not conventional political figures like U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton or her GOP counterpart, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

Such centrist voters are not particularly attracted by the standard political divisions between left and right. They are inclined instead towards a past- future orientation. They will be naturally attracted to anyone who can replace the transactional claims of old-line special interests with a transformational vision of how people can work together to improve both their society and their lives.

For years, our political system has been dominated by ideologues of both the right and the left. This has left the disconnected moderates frustrated and out in the cold.

Now, there is talk about the rise of the "radical center," made up of voters moderate in attitude but passionate in their hopes, and who have been radicalized by their dislike of the present political system.

As this year's campaign went on, increasingly I heard people saying "It's time for a change." They're right -- and by change, they need a whole lot more than the usual switch from Tweedledum to Tweedledee. We are talking about a realignment in which the politics of the future replace those of the past. And I wouldn't be surprised if this election marks the turning point from talk to reality.

Phil Power is a longtime observer of politics, economics and education issues in Michigan. He would be pleased to hear from readers at ppower@hcnnet.com. These opinions and others expressed in Phil Power's columns are individual opinions and do not in any way represent official policy positions of the Center For Michigan.