Times are tough everywhere, but the economy in Grand Rapids is holding up better than many because the region is steadily shifting from a manufacturing base to a services base.

Those are the key conclusions to a new economic report by economist George Erickcek, who has an engaging way with both numbers and wit.

Erickcek's latest west Michigan economic forecast is right here. Glancing through these Powerpoint slides is a great way to bone up on the basics before engaging in finger-pointing debate with the relatives at the holiday dinner table.

Three key conclusions from Erickcek's report:

1. Grand Rapids is, like so many other places, losing manufacturing jobs. But the region is making up for it with steady gains in professional services, health care, and education.

2. Housing prices in west Michigan have fallen a few percentage points, but the greater Grand Rapids market is retaining much more of its value today than what we're seeing in the boom and bust cycles on both coasts.

3. Grand Rapids has the best environment for future job creation compared with a dozen peer cities nationwide.

Finally, Erickcek offers a holiday gift -- advice on how to weather the economic storm..

Keep your day job –The odds are currently against new start-ups at this phase of the business cycle.

Keep your night job –Employment may be slow to recover.

New growth will more likely happen from the inside than from the outside. Business investment will likely remain flat until the economy recovers.