Lansing insiders, including more than a few cynics, are already predicting a government shutdown this fall due to a brewing budget battle that could make 2007 look like a picnic. The storm clouds spinning into a vortex just offshore include plummeting tax revenues, planned cuts to nearly every interest in the state budget, from human services to higher ed and scholarship funding to furloughs for state workers, and on and on and on.

Despite the one-time gift of federal stimulus money, the House and Senate remain at least $300 million apart on their separate budget approaches.

The state begins its 2009-10 budget in October. The Center for Michigan has tracked the budget proposals for 2009-10 since February. As of early this month, even with the one-time gift of huge federal stimulus dollars, the House and Senate are at least $300 million apart on their approaches for how to spend the general fund — the main discretionary purse for the state.

Click here for an at-a-glance summary of the proposals since February.

Quick takeaways:

1. SLASH AND BURN. The House has set a target to slash 7 percent and the Senate 10 percent from the budget first proposed by Gov. Jennifer Granholm in February.

2. THE COST OF POVERTY. Under any proposed scenario, the combined cost of social programs, prisons, courts, and state police account for at least two-thirds of general fund spending.

3. LAW AND ORDER. As a percentage of overall planned spending, the costs of courts, prisons, and state police have remained whole since the original proposal in February.

4. MIXED SIGNALS ON EDUCATION. At the national economic summit in Detroit this week, the governor talked for the umpteenth time about the importance of improving Michigan's proportion of college graduates. But the latest legislative budgets would slash $90 million or more from colleges and universities — with some of those cuts coming in college scholarships. But funding for community colleges has so far remained whole at roughly $300 million.

5. WHERE'S THE STRATEGY? As we and many others have pointed out since the 2007 budget debacle, there is no clearly delineated strategy in the state budget. What are we, as a people, trying to accomplish with this budget? So far, the budget negotiations have been a painful and tortured attempt to limit bleeding and preserve many status quo functions if not their traditional funding.