Thomas Carlyle dubbed economics the "dismal science" back in 1848. These days, however, responsible columnists seem to have inherited the "dismal" crown, since part of our job is drawing attention to the possibility that this time, Chicken Little may be right.

Or in other words, the sky is indeed falling, at least in Michigan. Want some evidence? Here goes:

If you think Michigan is in a bad place now, just hunker down. You ain't seen nothin' yet. In a few years, the "unfunded" pension and health-care liabilities for public employees -- municipal and state, together with teachers -- will make the pension and health-care problems of the auto industry look pretty small.

Unfunded, by the way, means money that employers have agreed to pay in the future without any idea where the money will come from. Since Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's budget plans are all over the news this week, let's start with Detroit.

Last year, the Detroit auditor general reported the city is obligated for more than $7 billion in unfunded health-care benefits for its retirees. Of course, that isn't due all at once -- but the cost of covering retirees' health care has increased from 12.8 percent of the city's payroll to 20.7 percent, according to the J.L. Boyle consulting firm.

Calling the situation "dire" in a Detroit News column, John Boyle projects that health- care benefit costs will cost more than $247 million by 2008, nearly one- third of the city's entire payroll.

Other local governments are just now beginning to face up to their coming tidal wave of unfunded pension and health care obligations. To its great credit, Oakland County has taken the lead in pre-funding some of its costs, in part by substituting a defined- contribution plan for its old-fashioned, increasingly expensive defined-benefit plan.

The situation for state employees is equally alarming, according to Tom Clay, the highly respected chief policy analyst for the Citizens' Research Council. Clay reports that the state's total unfunded health-care obligations for teachers was $16 billion and around another $6.8 billion for other state employees.

The teacher situation is particularly grave. After Proposal A was adopted, full responsibility for contributions to retired teacher pensions and health-care benefits fell to local school districts.

Funding for these benefits comes in the form of contributions to the Michigan Public School Employees Retirement System, or MPSERS. According to Clay, the contribution rate for both pensions and health care paid by school boards is estimated to jump significantly from the 14.87 percent charged by the state for fiscal year 2005 to more than 20 percent for 2008.

The budget effect these escalating costs will be dramatic, according to the Citizens Research Council report.

For fiscal 2005, the increase in MPSERS contributions for teacher pensions will average around $90 per pupil, an amount greater than the increase in per-pupil state support.

Projections are that increases for the next three years will exceed $100 per pupil per year, with the total per-pupil costs of teacher pensions is estimated to reach $1,200 by 2008.

It's worse for retirees' health-care benefits, if only because the cost of health care is increasing at such a rapid rate; for example, the annual increase from fiscal 1995 through fiscal 2003 was 12.7 percent.

When the sky starts falling, Chicken Little says, it falls in little bits and not all at once.

We know about the problems of Detroit, thanks to the auditor general's report. We know about teacher retiree pension and health-care costs, thanks to the Citizens Research Council. But we don't know much about the accumulated unfunded pension and health- care obligations of the many other cities and counties throughout Michigan.

I suspect we're about to find out, because the Governmental Standards Board has issued Statement 43, setting standards for reporting the costs of post-employment benefit plans.

The new standards will require disclosure of liabilities for retiree benefits such as health insurance. The state has reported the unfunded health-care liability for school employees for years, but we're soon going to get a much better picture of what the overall unfunded costs for retiree pensions and health care.

The total figure is bound to curl what remains of your hair. And it will set off a round of agonized hand-wringing and angry negotiating that will make negotiations between the auto industry and the United Auto Workers union look like a civilized tea party.

Editor's Note: Ari Adler, press secretary to Michigan Senate majority leader Ken Sikkema, writes to correct an assertion I made in last week's column. The "Agreement to Lead" was initiated by Sen. Sikkema, not Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Phil Power is a longtime observer of politics, economics and education issues in Michigan. He would be pleased to hear from readers atppower@hcnnet.com.